Regional Frequency Analysis of Maximum Monthly Rainfall in Haryana State of India Using L-Moments

  • Mohit Nain Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Basic Sciences and Humanities, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar-125004 (Haryana), India
  • B. K. Hooda Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Basic Sciences and Humanities, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar-125004 (Haryana), India
Keywords: Maximum monthly rainfall, cluster analysis, L-moments, regional frequency analysis, return period, quantile estimates

Abstract

The paper aims to select the appropriate regional frequency distribution for the maximum monthly rainfall and estimation of quantiles using L-moments for the 27 rain gauge stations in Haryana. These 27 rain gauge stations were grouped into three homogeneous regions (Region-1, Region-2, and Region-3) using Ward’s method of cluster analysis. To confirm the homogeneity of each region, L-moments based measure of heterogeneity was used. For each homogeneous region, a regional distribution was selected with the help of the L-moments ratio diagram and goodness-of-fit test. Results of the goodness-of-fit test and L-moments ratio diagram indicated that Generalized Logistic and Generalized Extreme Value distributions were best- fitted regional frequency distributions for the Region-1 and Region-2 respectively while for Region-3, Pearson Type-3) was best-fitted distribution. The quantiles for each region were calculated and the regional growth curves were developed. The accuracy measurements were determined using Monte Carlo simulations for the regional quantiles. Results of simulations showed that uncertainty in regional quantiles measured by Root Mean Square Error value and 90 percent error limits were small when the return period was low but uncertainty in quantiles increases as the return period increases.

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Author Biographies

Mohit Nain, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Basic Sciences and Humanities, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar-125004 (Haryana), India

Mohit Nain is currently pursuing PhD under guidance of Dr. B. K. Hooda in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, COBS&H, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar. He completed his master programme in 2016 and topic of research was “Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Monthly Rainfall in Haryana” He published more than 8 research papers in different reputed journal. He also attended more than 5 national and international conferences and participated many workshop related to statistical data analysis.

B. K. Hooda, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Basic Sciences and Humanities, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar-125004 (Haryana), India

B. K. Hooda is currently working as a Professor of Statistics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, COBS&H, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar and has also served as its Head from 2011–2015. Earlier, he has taught at Dr. Y. S. Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry, Nauni (Solan) in Himachal Pradesh, and at Guru Jambheshwar University of Science & Technology, Hisar. A member of various national and international associations and scientific societies, Professor Hooda has more than 60 research papers to his credit. He has been a Commonwealth fellow to the University of Leeds in 2007–08. He has guided several M.Sc. and Ph.D. students of statistics and has been in the advisory committee of hundreds of students and research scholars of Statistics and other disciplines. He has 30 years of teaching experience both at UG and PG level and has authored several teaching manuals. He often visits various universities and leading institutions of India to deliver talks on specialized topics. His areas of interest are statistical inference, multivariate analysis and machine learning and their applications for analyzing and interpreting agricultural data.

Published
2021-03-30
Section
Articles