Using SIR Model and Recurrence Formula to Predict the Spread of COVID-19 in Sambalpur: A Mathematical Study
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.13052/jgeu0975-1416.928Keywords:
COVID-19, SIR Model, recurrence formula, spreadAbstract
Corona Virus has spread across the globe and is creating havoc. Lockdown
is being imposed worldwide depending on the number of cases. Everyone
are advised to wear masks, follow social distancing, and use hand sanitizers
to keep them safe. But all these precautions are not enough to curb the
spread of the disease. People are still getting infected even after taking proper
precautions and obeying the lockdown rule. We need to know in advance
the approximate number of infected people so that we can devise better
precautionary measures to curb the spread of the virus. So we use a simple
SIR Model and solve it using basic differentiation and integration techniques
and then use recurrence formula approach to predict the spread of COVID-
19 in the city of Sambalpur of Odisha state. We compare the outcome of the
model with the real time data and we arrive at the conclusion that the model
is efficient in predicting the spread using the recurrence formula till the date
05/06/2021.
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